EU Dairy Markets, situation and outlook May – August 2013

Highlights:

• An easing of the relatively short supply situation is unlikely before the end of the year 2013. The cyclical decline of EU milk production might come to its end just when it starts to go down according to the regular seasonal pattern within short time. Production in other exporting areas of the world is also stagnating or even reduced.
• With reduced EU milk supplies and increased requirements for cheese manufacturing and fresh markets the availability of milk for the production of the exportable commodities will be lower than in 2012 until at least the mid of the year. After that time, it could be ahead of the year 2012. Only the annual totals of cheese are likely to exceed those of last year, whereas butter and milk powder totals will be less.
• The prices of the commodities butter and skim milk powder will stay high for most time until the end of 2013. They started to go up just in the major production season in the European spring.
• For some time ahead international prices will have to adjust to European price levels regardless of the Euro rate.
• The EU will neither be in the position to keep milk powder exports at record levels nor to cover the domestic demand like in 2012.

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